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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

Projections of Energy Consumption in 2000 Compared with 1938 and 1965 Actual
(billions of metric tons of coal equivalent)
Energy Consumption in Year 2000 if					
			Trend in Consumption	World Consumption Is	World Consumption Is
			from 1955	at U.S. 1965	at West Europe
	1938	1965	to 1965	per Capita	1965 per
	Actual	Actual	Continues	Level	Capita Level
			(1)	(2)	(3)
World	1.79	5.5	40.5	67.6	23.7
America	.71	2.04	6.45	3.64	1.27
Latin America	.039	.20	2.01	6.63	2.32
Western Europe	.56	1.09	3.84	3.77	1.32
East Europe					
and U.S.S.R.	.30	1.23	10.98	5.51	1.93
Communist Asia	.027	.32	6.42	13.5	4.74
Asia	.112	.39	9.94	26.1	9.14
Africa	.023	.093	.55	8.36	2.92
Oceania	.018	.061	.33	.34	.12
Sources: Special tabulations of world energy use done at Resources for the Future, Inc. (Washington, D.C.) from United Nations and other data sources.
deficiencies; and there could also be considerable difficulty in maintaining for the next 30 years the rate of increase in food output and consumption achieved in the base period. However, the near tripling of food output by 2000 that is required by a doubling of world population and a one-third increase in per capita output does not appear beyond the range of possibility in terms of sheer calories.
The chief hope for achieving such a target lies, of course, in the application of technology and management in countries at early stages of development. If the less developed countries could attain the yields in basic crops already achieved in North America, Europe, and Japan, the much larger world population at the end of the century could be provided with an adequate supply of calories. If the future levels of yields in the less developed countries equalled those expected in the developed countries, the LDC's would have grains above their requirements for food. This grain surplus could then be a source of more proteins if used for animal feed. Additional increases in output may be secured by cultivating new lands, particularly in Africa and South America, but this is generally less promising than better cultivation as a source of additional of projecting resource demands by major world regions. Based on the most recent high population projections of the United Nations (3.295 billion in 1965 projected to 4.551 billion in 1980 and 6.994 billion in 2000), our rough estimates of the materials which would be consumed in the year 2000 were made under each of the following assumptions: